New research methods that involve satellite data could prove useful in detecting volcanic unrest years ahead of the eruption. In a recent study published in the journal Nature Geoscience, researchers from NASA’s JPL and the University of Alaska Fairbanks claimed that large-scale thermal activity measured using long-wavelength satellite data revealed that steam eruption of five volcanoes was detected years ago.
Though there are known signals of a volcano eruption such as seismic activity, sudden deformation of ground, or changes in gas emissions, predicting a volcano eruption accurately is still tricky.
“Volcanoes are like a box of mixed chocolates: They may look similar, but inside there is a lot of variety between them and, sometimes, even within the same one,” JPL’s Paul Lundgren, the study’s co-author, said in a release from NASA. “On top of that, only a few volcanoes are well monitored, and some of the most potentially hazardous volcanoes are the least frequently eruptive, which means you can’t rely strictly on historical records.”
Seismologists were able to alarm St. Vincent residents of the increased seismic activity just hours ahead of the eruption. NASA explained that the team of scientists used the MODIS instruments aboard its Terra and Aqua satellites to go through 16 years of radiant heat data.
“In the years leading up to an eruption, the radiant surface temperature over much of the volcano increased by around 1 degree Celsius from its normal state. It decreased after each eruption,” NASA wrote.
“We attribute large-scale thermal unrest to the enhancement of underground hydrothermal activity and suggest that such analysis of satellite-based infrared observations can improve constraints on the thermal budget of volcanoes, early detection of pre-eruptive conditions, and assessments of volcanic alert levels,” the paper’s conclusion read.
The method is expected to be used by scientists for more volcanoes in the coming days. Refining the method and using their previous experience to drive existing tools could prove to be a lifesaver.
